the Walnut Diary

Tom Clark’s Global News interview with Kory Teneycke today revealed the twisted mindset behind that horrific commercial. We’ve seen that kind of thinking from mass murderers and white supremacists, but I shared Clark’s astonishment when the spokesman of Stephen Harper’s Conservative Party lifted the mask. They intend to give no quarter and they deserve no support.

http://globalnews.ca/news/2080288/full-interview-conservative-spokesman-defends-use-of-isis-video-in-attack-ad/

The spectre of Stephen Harper standing alone on a sinking ship hoves increasingly into view as high-profile cabinet members take their leave in advance of the October 15 federal election.

It’s ironic that the Harper Regime is now forced by a decimated front bench to rely upon the dubious skills and charisma of Paul Calandra and Pierre Poilievre.  The cause likely dates back to the old Reform Party resolution to get rid of MP pensions.

Remember how all Reform MPs pledged not to accept their pensions when they were first elected, but how all found it in their consciences to retire on them?

Harper’s changes to the Federal MP pension plan to take effect in 2015 may well have torpedoed his re-election chances.

Incumbent MPs may not all be financial wizards (take the NDP examples currently in circulation for instance) but having to wait an additional ten years for a full pension amounts to at least $600,000 lost dollars.  During that time increased personal pension contributions would amount to another $390,000 lost.  Perhaps the clincher is the elimination of the sweetener:  for every dollar a current MP puts into his or her pension plan, the people of Canada currently contribute $6.50.  That drops to a 1:1 ratio and an annual contribution rate of about $39,000, up from $11,000.  A pay cut of $28,000 is hardly good for one’s desire to serve the people of Canada.

Combine the pay cut with the financial hit which would accompany another term in office with its sharply increased cost of getting elected in the long upcoming campaign, with the experience of colleague Dean del Mastro facing incarceration for some of the electoral sleights-of-hand which produce an electoral victory, and it’s not hard to see why so many of the most electable members of Harper’s caucus have opted for retirement.

I have said for years that if Stephen Harper can’t win he will tear the Conservative Party down before he leaves, but I never would have suspected that the mechanism for the implosion would be as simple as a small revision in the MP’s pension plan.

UPDATE:  25 June, 2015

The news of Harper’s failure to protect Canadian milk and poultry quotas in the upcoming Trans Pacific Trade Agreement tore another major rift in the  the Conservative base last night.  Steve is definitely razzing the Tory clubhouse down on his way out with this walk away from the safe seats of Eastern Ontario and rural Quebec where the dairy industry is king.

The House of Commons Board of Internal Economy has declared that the Federal NDP owes the House of Commons 2.75 million dollars for misdirected funds and 1.2 million dollars for inappropriate postal expenses.  The speaker plans to garnish the salaries of affected MPs if they don’t pay up.  NDP leader Thomas Mulcair claims the whole thing is a partisan attempt by the Conservatives and the Liberals to slap down the party in the face of its gain at the polls, but the invoices for postage and satellite office costs, as well as the salaries of staff working in Montreal, Quebec City and Toronto while the party declared they were in Ottawa, those bills can’t be denied.

Mulcair would be wise to make this problem go away, and quickly. The NDP has a tradition that “Someone else pays.” The satellite office controversy plays squarely to this perceived weakness in their culture.

If Mulcair and company can’t get their heads around the idea of working within a budget, the university-graduate votes which have gravitated to the NDP over the Bill C-51 protest will take to the air again before election day, especially if Trudeau looks like a man who spends within his means and pays his bills.

All that working-class-hero stuff Mulcair’s using to soften his image won’t work if Canadians can’t trust him to balance a chequebook, and the rumour about the 11-times renegotiated mortgage on his house can’t inspire confidence.

Eric Grenier’s polls show a very close and unpredictable election on October 15th.  With Canada’s first-past-the-post voting system he suggests that the outcome may depend upon a butterfly effect, with mere handfuls of votes swinging the outcome in favour of any one of the three main parties.

The fluttering wings in this election might well belong to the Canadian Firearms Association and their concerns about surveillance.  While progressives believe they have a monopoly on resistance to C-51, the original Reform base, the “Back off, Government!” rural landowners, could move to fringe candidates on the right in large enough numbers to split the Conservative vote in close races.  Remember the Kill-the-Firearms-Registry movement?  How are those core Harper supporters going to like Bill C-51, the law which takes their rights away?

It might be a good time to run as a Libertarian in a lot of rural ridings.

Michael Chong appeared on CTV’s Question Period recently in conjunction with his private member’s bill which appears stuck in Senate until it dies on the order paper with the election call.

I’d never seen this fellow interviewed before.  It immediately became obvious why he was a first-round cabinet pick for Stephen Harper, and as I watched him in debate it became even more obvious why he quit the job out of principle.

Somebody should do a pre-election poll which tracks the relative positions of the three main parties if Michael Chong were to replace Stephen Harper as the leader of the Conservative Party of Canada.  Chong, an apparently idealistic, moderate conservative, might well draw a lot of voters back to the blue tent after Mike Harris and Stephen Harper stole their party from them.

UPDATE, 24 June, 2015

The Senate passed Chong’s bill into law.  Good.

To:  Hon. Stephen Harper, Prime Minister of Canada

O.K., Steve, here’s the deal. You don’t want May, Trudeau and Mulcair to spend a couple of hours shooting at an empty chair in the main debate on CBC. This can do you no end of hurt.

So send Paul Calandra to fill the chair. He’s been willing to play whipping boy for the last year, and if his recent performance on Power and Politics is any indicator, viewers will find watching him so painful that they’ll turn off in droves and forget about the debates.

BTW: if this modest little tactic helps you get re-elected, I’m eligible for a senate seat representing Ontario, and because I live in the Ottawa area, there wouldn’t be any need for a housing allowance.

Rod Croskery

The Canadian Police Association
mgendron@cpa-acp.ca

Dear Sir:

I hold power of attorney for my mother, Mrs. Edna Croskery, who suffers from Alzheimer’s disease. She has been disturbed of late by repeated calls from the Canadian Police Association requesting contributions. They won’t take no for an answer. These calls have upset her.

My wife on Feb 2, 2015 intercepted one of these calls, confronted the operator and extracted a promise to make no more calls to 613-272-2***. Today in the mail, dated Feb 2, 2015, was a colourful demand for payment of a pledge for $50.00, entitled “Bullying in Schools.” The irony of the letter did not amuse.

I made a number of attempts to penetrate the telephone fortress but was unable to contact an operator at the Canadian Police Association.

Please consider this note your notification that on behalf of Mrs. Croskery I will not be honouring pledge #492***61, and you should be ashamed of a business model which condones this kind of harassment.

Sincerely,

Rod Croskery, M.Ed.

UPDATE 20 August, 2015

Definitely a scam. Another automated call came at mealtime today. I answered and after a delay a male with an Indian accent went into his spiel about Mom’s previous donations. I unloaded on the guy pretty well. My accusation of harassment of an Alzheimer’s sufferer meant nothing to him. Only when I told him that my mother no longer lives here did he apologize and hang up.

According to the Internet, the Canadian Police Association is a lobby group with Conservative ties. It seems its fundraising is subcontracted offshore as well, and preying upon the elderly is its standard practice.

A plague on them.

http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2015/02/16/Canadian-Politics-of-Fear/?utm_source=mondayheadlines&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=160215

In the mind of the media Dimitri Soudas has become Trudeau’s captured Enigma machine.

Information derived from cracking the Enigma code (when Germany didn’t know it) won Churchill the war. Of course the Harper camp is fully aware of the Dimitrieve situation, so Trudeau’s main tactical advantage will likely lie in the amount of effort the Tories have to make to cover their tracks. This may well ensure that there will be no early election call, if Harper was ever thinking of one. The threat of electoral dirty tricks from the Conservative War Room may have been blunted somewhat.

The question in every political junkie’s mind is how effectively will JT use this intelligence bonanza?

Notice the subtle shift in columnists’ attitudes over the last week: the election is again Trudeau’s to lose, and Eve Adams’ previously risable attempt to win a Liberal nomination has turned into a David and Goliath battle against the towering Joe Oliver.

I just watched a live press conference where Justin Trudeau introduced the latest defector to the Liberal camp, Eve Adams. Wow! Of all of the idiotic things for a leader to do…

My first impression was that JT is nuts to let this hot potato anywhere near the LPC. But then I thought he was crazy to get into that boxing ring, too. There’s no doubt Eve Adams gets a lot of attention from TV cameras, and if she has it in for Harper, JT can continue with his sunny ways while she does the dirty work.

Trudeau has promised to take the high road, specifically not to run attack ads. But with Eve primed and ready for every camera which comes by with her story of her flight from the horrible Conservatives, he’ll have a walking, talking, free attack ad to knock Harper off message whenever he wants it. Somewhere down the road there’ll be a nomination meeting which she may or may not win.

In the meantime, ski while there’s snow, Justin.

Adams was surprisingly articulate in her dissection of income splitting this morning at the presser. If her two-minute lecture before the cameras makes it to the national news, income splitting is dead as a campaign plank.

And she’s sorta the horse’s mouth, eh?

Who knows what dirt Dimitri Soudas will dig up to help Eve along, too?

Update: 10:31 a.m.

Turns out Harper shuffled his cabinet today. Who knew? I wonder which faces will be above the fold in tomorrow’s papers, Harper, Poilievre and Kenney or Trudeau and Adams?